A little dance number from Orel Hershiser and the 1986 Dodgers.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Sunday, March 1, 2009
2009 Closers
The Mets made their biggest splash of the offseason by signing Francisco Rodriguez, a move that kept both parties in the headlines for a couple of weeks. Rodriguez has been extremely effective his whole career, and the Mets are certainly glad to have him on board, now that Billy Wagner may never be the same. But some people have speculated that K-Rod, after saving an mlb-record 62 games last year, may be physically deteriorating--already, at age 27.
I personally don't think there's a lot of merit to the point: K-Rod's innings have actually been very consistent--and comparable to those of other closers--in the last few years, and he still seems too young to burn out (although it is true that his WHIP has declined a bit). The thing that's really bothering people, I suspect, is that relievers are a notoriously difficult breed to predict.
Consider all the flameouts: Eric Gagne never bouncing back from his injury; Keith Foulke having undiagnosable back (or elbow?) problems; Brad Lidge evolving into a lights-out closer, then being shamed into to failure by Albert Pujols, then turning back into a lights-out closer two years later.
Being a closer is one of the most mentally challenging positions in any sport, and (I say) a lot of the unpredictability of the market for relievers has to do with how easily that mental edge can disappear--through bad luck, injury, or new circumstances. And a few memorable failures can make the fans turn on you.
RotoAuthority has posted a list of the 2009 closers around baseball. The question is: who's going to fall apart, and who's going to be effective? Here are my thoughts.
Best bets:
Johnathan Papelbon, Red Sox. He's insanely competitive, even when dancing with Kevin Youkilis. He's young, he throws gas, and he's never been hurt. He obviously loves the role and I expect him to be in Boston a long time.
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets. 62 saves and in his physical prime. He's pitched under pressure and excelled. Let's not overthink it.
Joe Nathan, Twins. He's given up 37 runs in the last three years combined. What more do you want?
Joakim Soria, Royals. Saved 42 games for a team that only won 75 in total. And he's 24.
Good with an asterisk:
Mariano Rivera, Yankees. Well, he's the best closer ever. But he has to get old at some point, right? This year he's 39. When does the curtain come down?
Brad Lidge, Phillies. He has great stuff, and was 41 for 41 in save opportunities last year. But still: he's a fly ball pitcher in a small park. And given his history, you have to feel at least a little nervous every time he takes the rubber.
Bobby Jenks, White Sox. He's got the makeup and the stuff, but he's not bulletproof like these other guys. And he has a weight problem.
Sleepers and question marks:
Brian Fuentes, Angels. Had a couple good years in a row for the Rockies. Bill James projects he's going to save 4 games next season. He's probably pretty effective, or something. To Fuentes fans, I say: whatever. I still think it will be hard not to replace him with Jose Arredondo one of these days.
Jose Valverde, Astros. More effective than Brian Fuentes. He actually might deserve to be ranked higher than this. But I never know when he's going to have a meltdown.
BJ Ryan, Blue Jays. He's had one injury already, and is not known to be getting any younger. Still, he'd be a great stopper for the Blue Jays, if only they could play less than 57 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
Kerry Wood, Indians. Kerry Wood is my homeboy.
The middle class:
Manny Corpas, Jonathan Broxton, and Carlos Marmol. Good stuff, but problematic. Plus, whatever. Francisco Cordero might be effective if he remembers not to throw any chairs at the fans. Troy Percival could bounce back for the Rays, but this area is a big question mark for them. Joel Zumaya's return from injury is highly questioned, but he was fierce for a while there. I briefly had my eye on Atlanta's Mike Gonzalez, but have since moved on. George Sherrill of the Orioles seems like a decent fellow. About the likes of Heath Bell and Matt Capps and Huston Street, I do not have an opinion.
Wait til next year:
Diamondbacks, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Nats, and Brewers: my advice is, get a big lead.
I personally don't think there's a lot of merit to the point: K-Rod's innings have actually been very consistent--and comparable to those of other closers--in the last few years, and he still seems too young to burn out (although it is true that his WHIP has declined a bit). The thing that's really bothering people, I suspect, is that relievers are a notoriously difficult breed to predict.
Consider all the flameouts: Eric Gagne never bouncing back from his injury; Keith Foulke having undiagnosable back (or elbow?) problems; Brad Lidge evolving into a lights-out closer, then being shamed into to failure by Albert Pujols, then turning back into a lights-out closer two years later.
Being a closer is one of the most mentally challenging positions in any sport, and (I say) a lot of the unpredictability of the market for relievers has to do with how easily that mental edge can disappear--through bad luck, injury, or new circumstances. And a few memorable failures can make the fans turn on you.
RotoAuthority has posted a list of the 2009 closers around baseball. The question is: who's going to fall apart, and who's going to be effective? Here are my thoughts.
Best bets:
Johnathan Papelbon, Red Sox. He's insanely competitive, even when dancing with Kevin Youkilis. He's young, he throws gas, and he's never been hurt. He obviously loves the role and I expect him to be in Boston a long time.
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets. 62 saves and in his physical prime. He's pitched under pressure and excelled. Let's not overthink it.
Joe Nathan, Twins. He's given up 37 runs in the last three years combined. What more do you want?
Joakim Soria, Royals. Saved 42 games for a team that only won 75 in total. And he's 24.
Good with an asterisk:
Mariano Rivera, Yankees. Well, he's the best closer ever. But he has to get old at some point, right? This year he's 39. When does the curtain come down?
Brad Lidge, Phillies. He has great stuff, and was 41 for 41 in save opportunities last year. But still: he's a fly ball pitcher in a small park. And given his history, you have to feel at least a little nervous every time he takes the rubber.
Bobby Jenks, White Sox. He's got the makeup and the stuff, but he's not bulletproof like these other guys. And he has a weight problem.
Sleepers and question marks:
Brian Fuentes, Angels. Had a couple good years in a row for the Rockies. Bill James projects he's going to save 4 games next season. He's probably pretty effective, or something. To Fuentes fans, I say: whatever. I still think it will be hard not to replace him with Jose Arredondo one of these days.
Jose Valverde, Astros. More effective than Brian Fuentes. He actually might deserve to be ranked higher than this. But I never know when he's going to have a meltdown.
BJ Ryan, Blue Jays. He's had one injury already, and is not known to be getting any younger. Still, he'd be a great stopper for the Blue Jays, if only they could play less than 57 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
Kerry Wood, Indians. Kerry Wood is my homeboy.
The middle class:
Manny Corpas, Jonathan Broxton, and Carlos Marmol. Good stuff, but problematic. Plus, whatever. Francisco Cordero might be effective if he remembers not to throw any chairs at the fans. Troy Percival could bounce back for the Rays, but this area is a big question mark for them. Joel Zumaya's return from injury is highly questioned, but he was fierce for a while there. I briefly had my eye on Atlanta's Mike Gonzalez, but have since moved on. George Sherrill of the Orioles seems like a decent fellow. About the likes of Heath Bell and Matt Capps and Huston Street, I do not have an opinion.
Wait til next year:
Diamondbacks, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Nats, and Brewers: my advice is, get a big lead.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Spring Training Cliches
Rotoauthority has released its 3rd annual list of spring training cliches. The suggestion here obviously being that they're meaningless, and they definitely have a point. It's telling that you can group all the optimism into a few simple categories--guys with new workout routines; guys who have added or lost wait; guys whose vision has improved. But it's all a little deterministic--if conditioning and muscle and vision don't affect a person's numbers, then what does?
It's interesting to look back at some of last year's cliches. Many of these guys not only failed to have breakout seasons, but actually regressed. Matt Kemp, who "shed some pounds" and felt "quicker and way stronger," saw his OPS drop 100 points. JJ Putz, who reportedly lost 14 pounds last offseason, and was "looking trim," proceeded to more than double both his ERA and his WHIP.
On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia, who "added a layer of muscle," hit more than twice as many homers and had an MVP season. Brian Bruney, who "lost a lot of weight," saw his ERA drop below 2 and his WHIP below 1. Tim Lincecum, who "added a slider," went on to win the NL Cy Young award. These are hard seasons to argue with.
Tellingly, the guys who claimed to be in "the best shape of my life"--Mike Sweeney and Javy Lopez--were barely even employed. Sweeney played in 42 games for the A's, and Lopez went home without a major league employer. In these cases, it was clearly a PR move.
So, what to make of this year's list? Well, some of these are pretty dubious. Prince Fielder has slimmed down, which probably means nothing. Here are two predictions about Fielder--he'll have a monster year (because he's a great hitter), and next season, someone will again report that he has lost weight.
Jeff Francoeur, who added 17 pounds before last season, has now lost 18 pounds. Well, let's hope he's not anything like last year, anyway. And beware Ivan Rodriguez, who claims to be in 2004 shape.
But there are a couple who may really be breaking out. Brett Myers, who battled his weight last year, has apparently lost 30 pounds. That's not something you can lie about. He pitched great in the second half last year (and it paid off), and is entering his contract year. I think Myers can win 15 games this year. Nick Swisher, who was aberrationally bad last year and claims to have lost 16 pounds, should be a much more reliable hitter this year.
The predictive power of statements made my baseball players when they come in to spring training is practically nil, and no one would even bother to report on this stuff if there were games to play. Whether or not Jacoby Ellsbury is "jacked" or if Russell Martin's new girlfriend is a Canadian model with a great diet regimen--this stuff is just not significant enough to determine what happens to someone over the next 7 months. But some of these guys are going to have big seasons, and for the moment, this is all we have to go on...
I'm just glad it's not my millions of dollars on the line.
It's interesting to look back at some of last year's cliches. Many of these guys not only failed to have breakout seasons, but actually regressed. Matt Kemp, who "shed some pounds" and felt "quicker and way stronger," saw his OPS drop 100 points. JJ Putz, who reportedly lost 14 pounds last offseason, and was "looking trim," proceeded to more than double both his ERA and his WHIP.
On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia, who "added a layer of muscle," hit more than twice as many homers and had an MVP season. Brian Bruney, who "lost a lot of weight," saw his ERA drop below 2 and his WHIP below 1. Tim Lincecum, who "added a slider," went on to win the NL Cy Young award. These are hard seasons to argue with.
Tellingly, the guys who claimed to be in "the best shape of my life"--Mike Sweeney and Javy Lopez--were barely even employed. Sweeney played in 42 games for the A's, and Lopez went home without a major league employer. In these cases, it was clearly a PR move.
So, what to make of this year's list? Well, some of these are pretty dubious. Prince Fielder has slimmed down, which probably means nothing. Here are two predictions about Fielder--he'll have a monster year (because he's a great hitter), and next season, someone will again report that he has lost weight.
Jeff Francoeur, who added 17 pounds before last season, has now lost 18 pounds. Well, let's hope he's not anything like last year, anyway. And beware Ivan Rodriguez, who claims to be in 2004 shape.
But there are a couple who may really be breaking out. Brett Myers, who battled his weight last year, has apparently lost 30 pounds. That's not something you can lie about. He pitched great in the second half last year (and it paid off), and is entering his contract year. I think Myers can win 15 games this year. Nick Swisher, who was aberrationally bad last year and claims to have lost 16 pounds, should be a much more reliable hitter this year.
The predictive power of statements made my baseball players when they come in to spring training is practically nil, and no one would even bother to report on this stuff if there were games to play. Whether or not Jacoby Ellsbury is "jacked" or if Russell Martin's new girlfriend is a Canadian model with a great diet regimen--this stuff is just not significant enough to determine what happens to someone over the next 7 months. But some of these guys are going to have big seasons, and for the moment, this is all we have to go on...
I'm just glad it's not my millions of dollars on the line.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
What This Blog Is
I'm just getting down the basic justifications of the existence of this blog. I will probably break all of the rules I'm setting down here almost immediately, but these are the guidelines for what this blog should theoretically be:
- It's mostly about baseball and stats and salaries. I'm kind of interested in win shares and runs created but won't get too technical unless and until I actually have a technical understanding...of anything.
- I may also write some other baseball-related stuff. I will post videos and pictures, too.
- It's called Mr. July. Get it? Because July isn't when the playoffs are. I'm eying you meaningfully now and hoping you realize that July is when the trading deadline is. I will definitely be posting about trade rumors when they come up.
- I am a Red Sox fan, and I keep the gloves up. A lot of people where I live think that Red Sox fans are all drunk and ornery and throw pizza at Garrett Anderson, but that was actually only one dude. I have never thrown a piece of pizza at anyone, so please do not send me hate mail directed at Boston fans. We're all friends here.
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