A little dance number from Orel Hershiser and the 1986 Dodgers.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Sunday, March 1, 2009
2009 Closers
The Mets made their biggest splash of the offseason by signing Francisco Rodriguez, a move that kept both parties in the headlines for a couple of weeks. Rodriguez has been extremely effective his whole career, and the Mets are certainly glad to have him on board, now that Billy Wagner may never be the same. But some people have speculated that K-Rod, after saving an mlb-record 62 games last year, may be physically deteriorating--already, at age 27.
I personally don't think there's a lot of merit to the point: K-Rod's innings have actually been very consistent--and comparable to those of other closers--in the last few years, and he still seems too young to burn out (although it is true that his WHIP has declined a bit). The thing that's really bothering people, I suspect, is that relievers are a notoriously difficult breed to predict.
Consider all the flameouts: Eric Gagne never bouncing back from his injury; Keith Foulke having undiagnosable back (or elbow?) problems; Brad Lidge evolving into a lights-out closer, then being shamed into to failure by Albert Pujols, then turning back into a lights-out closer two years later.
Being a closer is one of the most mentally challenging positions in any sport, and (I say) a lot of the unpredictability of the market for relievers has to do with how easily that mental edge can disappear--through bad luck, injury, or new circumstances. And a few memorable failures can make the fans turn on you.
RotoAuthority has posted a list of the 2009 closers around baseball. The question is: who's going to fall apart, and who's going to be effective? Here are my thoughts.
Best bets:
Johnathan Papelbon, Red Sox. He's insanely competitive, even when dancing with Kevin Youkilis. He's young, he throws gas, and he's never been hurt. He obviously loves the role and I expect him to be in Boston a long time.
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets. 62 saves and in his physical prime. He's pitched under pressure and excelled. Let's not overthink it.
Joe Nathan, Twins. He's given up 37 runs in the last three years combined. What more do you want?
Joakim Soria, Royals. Saved 42 games for a team that only won 75 in total. And he's 24.
Good with an asterisk:
Mariano Rivera, Yankees. Well, he's the best closer ever. But he has to get old at some point, right? This year he's 39. When does the curtain come down?
Brad Lidge, Phillies. He has great stuff, and was 41 for 41 in save opportunities last year. But still: he's a fly ball pitcher in a small park. And given his history, you have to feel at least a little nervous every time he takes the rubber.
Bobby Jenks, White Sox. He's got the makeup and the stuff, but he's not bulletproof like these other guys. And he has a weight problem.
Sleepers and question marks:
Brian Fuentes, Angels. Had a couple good years in a row for the Rockies. Bill James projects he's going to save 4 games next season. He's probably pretty effective, or something. To Fuentes fans, I say: whatever. I still think it will be hard not to replace him with Jose Arredondo one of these days.
Jose Valverde, Astros. More effective than Brian Fuentes. He actually might deserve to be ranked higher than this. But I never know when he's going to have a meltdown.
BJ Ryan, Blue Jays. He's had one injury already, and is not known to be getting any younger. Still, he'd be a great stopper for the Blue Jays, if only they could play less than 57 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
Kerry Wood, Indians. Kerry Wood is my homeboy.
The middle class:
Manny Corpas, Jonathan Broxton, and Carlos Marmol. Good stuff, but problematic. Plus, whatever. Francisco Cordero might be effective if he remembers not to throw any chairs at the fans. Troy Percival could bounce back for the Rays, but this area is a big question mark for them. Joel Zumaya's return from injury is highly questioned, but he was fierce for a while there. I briefly had my eye on Atlanta's Mike Gonzalez, but have since moved on. George Sherrill of the Orioles seems like a decent fellow. About the likes of Heath Bell and Matt Capps and Huston Street, I do not have an opinion.
Wait til next year:
Diamondbacks, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Nats, and Brewers: my advice is, get a big lead.
I personally don't think there's a lot of merit to the point: K-Rod's innings have actually been very consistent--and comparable to those of other closers--in the last few years, and he still seems too young to burn out (although it is true that his WHIP has declined a bit). The thing that's really bothering people, I suspect, is that relievers are a notoriously difficult breed to predict.
Consider all the flameouts: Eric Gagne never bouncing back from his injury; Keith Foulke having undiagnosable back (or elbow?) problems; Brad Lidge evolving into a lights-out closer, then being shamed into to failure by Albert Pujols, then turning back into a lights-out closer two years later.
Being a closer is one of the most mentally challenging positions in any sport, and (I say) a lot of the unpredictability of the market for relievers has to do with how easily that mental edge can disappear--through bad luck, injury, or new circumstances. And a few memorable failures can make the fans turn on you.
RotoAuthority has posted a list of the 2009 closers around baseball. The question is: who's going to fall apart, and who's going to be effective? Here are my thoughts.
Best bets:
Johnathan Papelbon, Red Sox. He's insanely competitive, even when dancing with Kevin Youkilis. He's young, he throws gas, and he's never been hurt. He obviously loves the role and I expect him to be in Boston a long time.
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets. 62 saves and in his physical prime. He's pitched under pressure and excelled. Let's not overthink it.
Joe Nathan, Twins. He's given up 37 runs in the last three years combined. What more do you want?
Joakim Soria, Royals. Saved 42 games for a team that only won 75 in total. And he's 24.
Good with an asterisk:
Mariano Rivera, Yankees. Well, he's the best closer ever. But he has to get old at some point, right? This year he's 39. When does the curtain come down?
Brad Lidge, Phillies. He has great stuff, and was 41 for 41 in save opportunities last year. But still: he's a fly ball pitcher in a small park. And given his history, you have to feel at least a little nervous every time he takes the rubber.
Bobby Jenks, White Sox. He's got the makeup and the stuff, but he's not bulletproof like these other guys. And he has a weight problem.
Sleepers and question marks:
Brian Fuentes, Angels. Had a couple good years in a row for the Rockies. Bill James projects he's going to save 4 games next season. He's probably pretty effective, or something. To Fuentes fans, I say: whatever. I still think it will be hard not to replace him with Jose Arredondo one of these days.
Jose Valverde, Astros. More effective than Brian Fuentes. He actually might deserve to be ranked higher than this. But I never know when he's going to have a meltdown.
BJ Ryan, Blue Jays. He's had one injury already, and is not known to be getting any younger. Still, he'd be a great stopper for the Blue Jays, if only they could play less than 57 games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.
Kerry Wood, Indians. Kerry Wood is my homeboy.
The middle class:
Manny Corpas, Jonathan Broxton, and Carlos Marmol. Good stuff, but problematic. Plus, whatever. Francisco Cordero might be effective if he remembers not to throw any chairs at the fans. Troy Percival could bounce back for the Rays, but this area is a big question mark for them. Joel Zumaya's return from injury is highly questioned, but he was fierce for a while there. I briefly had my eye on Atlanta's Mike Gonzalez, but have since moved on. George Sherrill of the Orioles seems like a decent fellow. About the likes of Heath Bell and Matt Capps and Huston Street, I do not have an opinion.
Wait til next year:
Diamondbacks, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Nats, and Brewers: my advice is, get a big lead.
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