Spring Training Cliches

Rotoauthority has released its 3rd annual list of spring training cliches. The suggestion here obviously being that they're meaningless, and they definitely have a point. It's telling that you can group all the optimism into a few simple categories--guys with new workout routines; guys who have added or lost wait; guys whose vision has improved. But it's all a little deterministic--if conditioning and muscle and vision don't affect a person's numbers, then what does?

It's interesting to look back at some of last year's cliches. Many of these guys not only failed to have breakout seasons, but actually regressed. Matt Kemp, who "shed some pounds" and felt "quicker and way stronger," saw his OPS drop 100 points. JJ Putz, who reportedly lost 14 pounds last offseason, and was "looking trim," proceeded to more than double both his ERA and his WHIP.

On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia, who "added a layer of muscle," hit more than twice as many homers and had an MVP season. Brian Bruney, who "lost a lot of weight," saw his ERA drop below 2 and his WHIP below 1. Tim Lincecum, who "added a slider," went on to win the NL Cy Young award. These are hard seasons to argue with.

Tellingly, the guys who claimed to be in "the best shape of my life"--Mike Sweeney and Javy Lopez--were barely even employed. Sweeney played in 42 games for the A's, and Lopez went home without a major league employer. In these cases, it was clearly a PR move.

So, what to make of this year's list? Well, some of these are pretty dubious. Prince Fielder has slimmed down, which probably means nothing. Here are two predictions about Fielder--he'll have a monster year (because he's a great hitter), and next season, someone will again report that he has lost weight.

Jeff Francoeur, who added 17 pounds before last season, has now lost 18 pounds. Well, let's hope he's not anything like last year, anyway. And beware Ivan Rodriguez, who claims to be in 2004 shape.

But there are a couple who may really be breaking out. Brett Myers, who battled his weight last year, has apparently lost 30 pounds. That's not something you can lie about. He pitched great in the second half last year (and it paid off), and is entering his contract year. I think Myers can win 15 games this year. Nick Swisher, who was aberrationally bad last year and claims to have lost 16 pounds, should be a much more reliable hitter this year.

The predictive power of statements made my baseball players when they come in to spring training is practically nil, and no one would even bother to report on this stuff if there were games to play. Whether or not Jacoby Ellsbury is "jacked" or if Russell Martin's new girlfriend is a Canadian model with a great diet regimen--this stuff is just not significant enough to determine what happens to someone over the next 7 months. But some of these guys are going to have big seasons, and for the moment, this is all we have to go on...

I'm just glad it's not my millions of dollars on the line.